Forecasting imports with information from abroad

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes. Since imports fluctuate heavily over time, they are difficult forecast and reliable leading indicators needed. Our paper introduces the first indicator growth, Import Climate. While surveys an often-used source for indicators, these data typically do not include information about expected demand of firms households. Therefore, our approach builds on idea that domestic country should be reflected export developments its main trading partners, which can measured by standard surveys. We show six advanced economies Climate outperforms business cycle mainly reflect demand. Thus, is a tool forecasting both academics policymakers.